Current Yesterday
USD 0.29063 0.28750
GBP 0.60000 0.60125
EUR 0.87375 0.87625
JPY 0.19250 0.19375
CHF 0.12000 0.12000
AUD 3.46250 3.40000
CAD 0.50000 0.50000
NZD 2.96250 2.82500
Thursday, March 26, 2009
German Consumer Confidence Falters as Outlook for Growth and Inflation Deteriorates
Consumer confidence in Germany fell for the first time in seven-months as households face fading demands for employment paired with fears of a deepening recession. The GfK index slipped to 2.4 in April from a revised reading of 2.5 in the previous month, and the data reinforces a weakening outlook for the region as households and businesses turn increasingly pessimistic towards the economy.
Fundamental Headlines• Geithner Wants New Rules to Check Risks – Wall Street Journal• AIG Fights a Fire at Its Paris Unit – Wall Street Journal• IBM set to lay off 5,000 in North America– Financial Times• U.S. Will Block China Reserves Plan, Former IMF Economists Say – Bloomberg• Citigroup May Manage Distribution of U.S. Aid to Auto Suppliers – BloombergEURUSD – Consumer confidence in Germany fell for the first time in seven-months as households face fading demands for employment paired with fears of a deepening recession. The GfK index slipped to 2.4 in April from a revised reading of 2.5 in the previous month, and the data reinforces a weakening outlook for the region as households and businesses turn increasingly pessimistic towards the economy. As Europe’s largest economy heads into a deepening recession, the European Central Bank is expected to ease policy further as the outlook for growth and inflation falters. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the EUR/USD Forum.GBPUSD – Retail spending in U.K. dropped 1.9% in February, after rising 0.8% in the previous month, which lowered the annualized rate to only 0.4% from a revised reading of 3.8% in January, which is the lowest level of sale growth in more than 13 years. The data suggested that economic conditions are deteriorating at an increased pace as households face a weakening labor market, and conditions are likely to get worse as trade conditions falter. Moreover, the sales deflator showed a 0.3% annual increase versus a 0.9% drop in January, which suggests that retailers are cutting back on discounts as growth prospects deteriorate at a record pace. Meanwhile, a separate report showed that business investments in the fourth quarter fell 1.5% despite an initial forecast for a 3.9%, which raised the annual rate to -4.5% from an advanced reading of 7.7%. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the GBP/USD Forum.
Fundamental Headlines• Geithner Wants New Rules to Check Risks – Wall Street Journal• AIG Fights a Fire at Its Paris Unit – Wall Street Journal• IBM set to lay off 5,000 in North America– Financial Times• U.S. Will Block China Reserves Plan, Former IMF Economists Say – Bloomberg• Citigroup May Manage Distribution of U.S. Aid to Auto Suppliers – BloombergEURUSD – Consumer confidence in Germany fell for the first time in seven-months as households face fading demands for employment paired with fears of a deepening recession. The GfK index slipped to 2.4 in April from a revised reading of 2.5 in the previous month, and the data reinforces a weakening outlook for the region as households and businesses turn increasingly pessimistic towards the economy. As Europe’s largest economy heads into a deepening recession, the European Central Bank is expected to ease policy further as the outlook for growth and inflation falters. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the EUR/USD Forum.GBPUSD – Retail spending in U.K. dropped 1.9% in February, after rising 0.8% in the previous month, which lowered the annualized rate to only 0.4% from a revised reading of 3.8% in January, which is the lowest level of sale growth in more than 13 years. The data suggested that economic conditions are deteriorating at an increased pace as households face a weakening labor market, and conditions are likely to get worse as trade conditions falter. Moreover, the sales deflator showed a 0.3% annual increase versus a 0.9% drop in January, which suggests that retailers are cutting back on discounts as growth prospects deteriorate at a record pace. Meanwhile, a separate report showed that business investments in the fourth quarter fell 1.5% despite an initial forecast for a 3.9%, which raised the annual rate to -4.5% from an advanced reading of 7.7%. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the GBP/USD Forum.GLOBAL MARKETS: European Stocks To Rise; Buoyed By Wall St
GLOBAL MARKETS: European Stocks To Rise; Buoyed By Wall St
By Andrea Tryphonides
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--European stocks are expected to open a little higher Thursday, with the late rally on Wall Street and a turnaround in Asia likely to give a boost to equity markets. Matt Buckland, a dealer at CMC Markets said: "A late rally on Wall Street should also help consolidate positive sentiment across the board." Buckland called London's FTSE 100 up 24 points, or 0.6%, at 3924.0, Frankfurt's DAX up 10.7 points or, 0.3%, at 4234.0 and Paris's CAC-40 9.5 points, or 0.3%, higher at 2903.0. However, there were indications from other traders that the recent rallies may have run their course. Ben Potter, research analyst at IG Markets, said: "There's no doubting this global rally is getting long in the tooth. The question is not how high we rally, but how far we fall when the bears regain control. This will help determine if we are near a bottom." Asian share markets were mostly a little higher, helped by the gains on Wall Street and a surge in mainland China financial stocks, which sent the Hang Seng Index up 3.1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.8%, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0%, South Korea's Kospi Composite up 1.2% and Taiwan shares 0.8% higher. But overall activity in Asia was low, with some fatigue setting in after recent sharp gains for many bourses. "In the short term I can understand this bullishness, but we haven't seen the full impact of the recession. I know markets look through all that, but it's going to cause further pain," said ABN Amro director David Iron. U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday, with a late surge for financial stocks such as JPMorgan Chase and home builders such as Toll Brothers, amid more signs of stabilization in the housing market. Stocks had dipped into negative territory mid-session after weak demand at a U.S. Treasury five-year note auction and a difficult sale of U.K. debt suggested that investors are balking at governments' spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 89.8 points at 7749.8, recouping the bulk of Tuesday's losses, though it was up by more than 200 points before the Treasury auction. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index added 7.6 points to 813.9 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 12.4 to 1529.0. The decline in U.S. Treasurys weighed on Japanese government bonds and is expected to continue to weigh on the European bond market Thursday. In the foreign exchanges, the dollar and euro were up a little against the Japanese yen, after an initial drop in the dollar in New York following comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Geithner initially appeared open to the Chinese proposal that an international currency supplant the U.S. dollar as the key global reserve currency, but later added "the dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency." The dollar was trading at Y98.08 at 0725 GMT, up from Y97.54 late in New York, and the euro was quoted at Y133.26, up from Y132.51. The euro was at $1.3570, down from $1.3583. Elsewhere, spot gold was down 93 cents from New York at $933.10 per troy ounce, with Barclays Capital forecasting a $916-$967 range for the metal. May Nymex crude was up 48 cents at $53.25 per barrel, having fallen $1.21 in New York. The economic calendar is rather quiet Thursday. H&M and Kingfisher's results will be in focus, along with a trading statement from Man Group. -By Andrea Tryphonides, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9281; andrea.tryphonides@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=Ia%2B9%2FwQde7iSgF%2FbgehNXw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresMarch 26, 2009 03:30 ET (07:30 GMT)
By Andrea Tryphonides
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--European stocks are expected to open a little higher Thursday, with the late rally on Wall Street and a turnaround in Asia likely to give a boost to equity markets. Matt Buckland, a dealer at CMC Markets said: "A late rally on Wall Street should also help consolidate positive sentiment across the board." Buckland called London's FTSE 100 up 24 points, or 0.6%, at 3924.0, Frankfurt's DAX up 10.7 points or, 0.3%, at 4234.0 and Paris's CAC-40 9.5 points, or 0.3%, higher at 2903.0. However, there were indications from other traders that the recent rallies may have run their course. Ben Potter, research analyst at IG Markets, said: "There's no doubting this global rally is getting long in the tooth. The question is not how high we rally, but how far we fall when the bears regain control. This will help determine if we are near a bottom." Asian share markets were mostly a little higher, helped by the gains on Wall Street and a surge in mainland China financial stocks, which sent the Hang Seng Index up 3.1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.8%, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0%, South Korea's Kospi Composite up 1.2% and Taiwan shares 0.8% higher. But overall activity in Asia was low, with some fatigue setting in after recent sharp gains for many bourses. "In the short term I can understand this bullishness, but we haven't seen the full impact of the recession. I know markets look through all that, but it's going to cause further pain," said ABN Amro director David Iron. U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday, with a late surge for financial stocks such as JPMorgan Chase and home builders such as Toll Brothers, amid more signs of stabilization in the housing market. Stocks had dipped into negative territory mid-session after weak demand at a U.S. Treasury five-year note auction and a difficult sale of U.K. debt suggested that investors are balking at governments' spending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 89.8 points at 7749.8, recouping the bulk of Tuesday's losses, though it was up by more than 200 points before the Treasury auction. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index added 7.6 points to 813.9 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 12.4 to 1529.0. The decline in U.S. Treasurys weighed on Japanese government bonds and is expected to continue to weigh on the European bond market Thursday. In the foreign exchanges, the dollar and euro were up a little against the Japanese yen, after an initial drop in the dollar in New York following comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Geithner initially appeared open to the Chinese proposal that an international currency supplant the U.S. dollar as the key global reserve currency, but later added "the dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency." The dollar was trading at Y98.08 at 0725 GMT, up from Y97.54 late in New York, and the euro was quoted at Y133.26, up from Y132.51. The euro was at $1.3570, down from $1.3583. Elsewhere, spot gold was down 93 cents from New York at $933.10 per troy ounce, with Barclays Capital forecasting a $916-$967 range for the metal. May Nymex crude was up 48 cents at $53.25 per barrel, having fallen $1.21 in New York. The economic calendar is rather quiet Thursday. H&M and Kingfisher's results will be in focus, along with a trading statement from Man Group. -By Andrea Tryphonides, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9281; andrea.tryphonides@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=Ia%2B9%2FwQde7iSgF%2FbgehNXw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresMarch 26, 2009 03:30 ET (07:30 GMT)
USD/JPY: Dollar breaks 98.00 resistance level: 98.40 on sight
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – After having hit 97.10 low o yesterday’s late U.S. session, the Dollar has strengthened, returning to levels above 98.00 ahead of the European trading session.If the USD holds above 98.00, next resistance level comes at 98.40 (Mar 24 high). Once above there, 98.85/99 (Mar 17 high), and swinging over 99.00, mar 5 high at 99.70 would be the last6 resistance level before 100.00 psychological level.A downward reaction below 98.00 would set 97.45 intra-day low as the closest support level, and below there the 97.00/96.85. Once below here, next support lies at 96.55.EUR/JPY has just broken 133.30 resistance level on its upmove form 1.30755 support level (Mar 25 low). Above here, 134.50 (Mar 24 high). If the Euro breaks that level, it will set a new 10-week high.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
London Session
Published: February 3, 2009 7:48 AM
Published: February 3, 2009 7:48 AM
The price action was relatively calm in London trading as markets continue to look forward to the ECB rate meeting and US nonfarm payrolls into the latter part of the week. European equities were flat pretty much across the board and the FX space was rather calm. EUR/USD managed to eke out a modest 10 pip rally and was sitting near 1.2870/80 just ahead of the NY session. This was despite another poor batch of economic data across the pond.
German retail sales declined -0.2% in December while the market was looking for an improvement to +0.5% from -0.1% the prior month. Meanwhile, eurozone producer prices fell -1.3% and this was also steeper than expected and took the annual run-rate to just 1.8% from 3.3% previously. Thus the ECB will remain hard-pressed to argue that inflation remains a problem near-term.
The yen crosses were likewise little changed as risk trades remained without direction. USD/JPY slipped a modest -18 pips towards 89.50/60 while EUR/JPY was just -15 points lower into the 115.20/30 zone. USD/CAD managed a 30 pip rally to 1.2450/60 as oil prices came off a touch towards $40.20/bbl. The $40 level for crude looks pivotal here and we briefly tried below it yesterday. We would expect a good break to the downside would see USD/CAD approach 1.2500/10 with relative ease.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prev est
2/3 15:00 GMT US Pending Home Sales MoM DEC -4.00% 0.00%
2/3 22:00 GMT US ABC Consumer Confidence 1-Feb -54 - -
2/3 US Total Vehicle Sales JAN 10.3M 10.2M
2/3 US Domestic Vehicle Sales JAN 7.8M 7.7M
New York Session
Published: February 3, 2009 5:11 PM
Published: February 3, 2009 5:11 PM
Risk taking was back in vogue in NY trading as earnings from the healthcare space and better than expected pending home sales put a bid under stocks. The S&P 500 rallied more than +1.5% as US pending home sales jumped 6.3% in November after a -3.7% pullback the prior month. Pending sales lead existing sales by about two months and this suggests at least some improvement in January sales.
With the number of vacant homes in the US reaching a record 19 million for 2008, however, any modest move higher in sales is likely to provide little relief to the inventory overhang. US Treasuries sold off in good size as well and the 2-year yield jumped 7bps to 0.96% while the 10-year rate was more than 16bps higher at 2.88%. Gold remained pretty resilient, closing down just -$5 near the $900/oz mark and somewhat defying the overall flight from safety.
Risk trades in FX land headed higher on the follow. EUR/USD added more than 180 pips into the 1.3030/40 zone on a good rally from 1.2950 in the latter part of the session. EUR/JPY was bid about 140 points towards 116.50/60 and this left USD/JPY a touch weaker near the 89.40/50 area. GBP/USD rocketed more than 200 pips towards 1.4450 as risk appetites drove cable higher. USD/CAD meanwhile slipped more than -180 pips as crude oil prices rose a little less than $1 but held on to $40/bbl support nicely.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session) prev est
2/3 22:30 GMT AU AiG Performance of Service Index JAN 39.3 - -
2/4 0:01 GMT UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence JAN 47 45
2/4 0:30 GMT AU Retail Sales Trend (MoM) DEC 0.10% 0.30%
2/4 0:30 GMT AU Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) DEC 0.40% 1.00%
2/4 0:30 GMT AU Building Approvals (MoM) DEC -12.80% 2.00%
2/4 0:30 GMT AU Building Approvals (YoY) DEC -34.70% -29.70%
2/4 2:00 GMT NZ ANZ Commodity Price JAN -7.40% - -
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (
| 2/4/2009 | 8:50 | FR | PMI Services | JAN F | 42.9 | 42.9 |
| 2/4/2009 | 8:55 | GE | PMI Services | JAN F | 45.4 | 45.4 |
| 2/4/2009 | 9:00 | EC | PMI Services | JAN F | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| 2/4/2009 | 9:00 | EC | PMI Composite | JAN F | 38.5 | 38.5 |
| 2/4/2009 | 9:30 | | PMI Services | JAN | 40.2 | 40.3 |
| 2/4/2009 | 10:00 | EC | Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) | DEC | 0.60% | -0.20% |
| 2/4/2009 | 10:00 | EC | Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) | DEC | -1.50% | -1.40% |
| 2/4/2009 | 10:30 | | BRC January Shop Price Index (Table) | 4-Feb | |
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